Manchester United to finish 6^th on 58 points, Liverpool to win the league again with Arsenal and Manchester City just missing out, Leeds, Burnley and Sunderland to all go straight back down. Spreadex Sports release their annual Prem Points Predictions.

The fixtures for the new Premier League season are live, but who will be celebrating success and who will be crying into their pint glasses come May 2026?

Manchester United are set to improve on a disastrous campaign last time out under Ruben Amorim with a sixth place finish and a haul of 58 points.

Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester City will be locked in a three-way title battle with the recent signing of Florian Wirtz just giving Liverpool the edge over their rivals, while Chelsea will again make the top 4.

But Leeds, Burnley and Sunderland will all go straight back down, making it three years in succession that promoted teams have immediately been relegated, as the Championship divide grows ever wider.

That’s the verdict from UK-based sports betting firm Spreadex, who have put out their annual Premier League Points Spread Predictions.

Spreadex’s data led markets suggest that defending champions Liverpool are facing a three-way title fight against Arsenal and Manchester City. Liverpool are currently predicted to finish just above Arsenal and Man City by the finest of margins. Meanwhile Manchester United will attempt to recover from their worst-ever Premier League season. Spreadex’s forecast shows an expected improvement on last season’s 42 points total, with a spread of between 57 and 59 points, but that would still leave the Red Devils short of what would be required to qualify for Champions League football.

And Spreadex are predicting a hat-trick of promoted teams to be relegated back to the Championship. Leeds are forecast to have the best odds of surviving with a prediction of between 35.5 and 37.5 points compared to Burnley at 28 to 30 points and Play-Off winners Sunderland stated to gain between 24.5 and 26.5 points. This would continue a concerning trend where the last two seasons have seen all the newly promoted teams finish in the bottom three. Raising questions over whether the gap between Premier League and Championship has grown so far that it’s impossible for promoted teams to compete.

Spreadex’s Josh Osgood said: “Last season was a damp squib for bettors with the title and relegation places all decided long before the end of the season.

“While this year’s title race should prove to be a much more exciting affair, the data predicts that the same can’t be said of the relegation battle. Once again, we expect the promoted sides to drop straight back down and the likes of Wolves, Brentford, West Ham and Everton to be untroubled by the prospect of Championship football.”

“Relegation battles going down to the wire on the final day of the season used to be part of the real pulling power for the Premier League but that now appears to be a thing of the past. The established sides are getting richer and richer and those from the second tier simply can no longer compete.”

It is important to note Spreadex’s forecast is a live market. Which means club’s forecasted totals can change between now and the start of the season, and good transfer business could improve a team’s outlook. Points predictions in this article are accurate as of 24th June 2025.

Spread betting carries a high level of risk and can result in losses larger than your initial steak/deposit.

Find every team’s points forecast below:

Arsenal: Points (77 - 79)

The 24/25 season was hugely disappointing for Arsenal and Mikel Arteta, the Gunners would have expected to be the team to take City’s crown, but a mixture of injuries and ill-discipline saw their points tally fall. However, if they can return to previous levels then they will expect to be closer in the title race, this team still needs to prove they can win something. The initial points forecast has them alongside Manchester City, but narrowly behind Liverpool.

Season History

• 24/25: 74 points
• 23/24: 89 points
• 22/23: 84 points

Aston Villa: Points (56.5 – 58.5)

Last season Villa fans had the highs of a European run to the Champions League Quarter-Finals. However, a tough Premier League season saw them miss out on qualifying for the competition on the final day. Now facing Thursday night Europa League football, Villa face a challenge and conundrum over whether to go for European success or focus on the league. Their current points forecast has them dropping in league performance again.

Season History

• 24/25: 66 points
• 23/24: 68 points
• 22/23: 61 points

Bournemouth (49 – 51)

The Cherries enjoyed a very successful season last time around. Iraola’s side gained plenty of admirers, however the downside of this is that bigger clubs have moved for numerous players. With Dean Huijsen moving to Real Madrid, Kerkez expected to join Liverpool and Zabarnyi also linked with PSG. It will be difficult for Bournemouth to hit the same levels in the new season as demonstrated by their forecast for 2025/26 showing a small drop compared to last season.

Season History

• 24/25: 56 points
• 23/24: 48 points
• 22/23: 39 points

Brentford: Points (42.5 - 44.5)

Last season saw Brentford again confirm that they have established themselves as a Premier League side. Wissa and Mbeumo combined for an impressive 39 league goals. However, Thomas Frank has departed for Spurs, and Mbeumo is linked with a move away. Brentford now face the daunting challenge of replacing both. Fans should expect a tougher upcoming season, as showcased by their points forecast.

Season History

• 24/25: 56 points
• 23/24: 39 points
• 22/23: 59 points

Brighton: Points (53 - 55)

Brighton are now approaching Fabian Hürzeler’s second season. The German faced question marks as the youngest permanent manager in Premier League history, he is seven years younger than James Milner! Brighton’s squad also has a good mix of youth and experience, and the club will be aiming to try qualify for Europe. However, to do so they will likely need to outperform their points forecast.

Season History

• 24/25: 61 points
• 23/24: 48 points
• 22/23: 62 points

Burnley: Points (28 - 30)

Burnley produced one of the all-time great seasons from a defensive perspective in the Championship last season. They conceded just 16 goals over 46 league games. Breaking defensive records under Scott Parker. Burnley’s defense will be the key to their survival chances but the quality of attacking standard in the Premier League will be a huge step up. Their forecast is unlikely to be enough for safety.

Season History

• 24/25: 100 points (Competing in Championship)
• 23/24: 24 points
• 22/23: 101 points (Competing in Championship)

Chelsea: Points (65.5 - 67.5)

Enzo Maresca’s successfully achieved Champions League qualification. A season which saw Chelsea talked of as potential title challengers in December, however, the team had a massive drop off in form in the new year as Cole Palmer’s goals dried up. A professional win against Forest on the final day was enough for a 4^th place finish. The young squad will be better for the experience. The current forecast has them performing at a similar level to the last two seasons.

Season History

• 24/25: 69 points
• 23/24: 63 points
• 22/23: 44 points

Crystal Palace: Points (45.5 - 47.5)

2024-25 will go down in Crystal Palace history, a famous FA Cup win at Wembley, the Eagles claimed their first major trophy. Oliver Glasner’s impact in 18 months has been huge. Palace’s forecast however suggests mid-table is probably expected to be the best they can achieve. The club also face an anxious wait regarding their ownership issues potentially blocking their inclusion in the Europa League.

Season History

• 24/25: 53 points
• 23/24: 49 points
• 22/23: 45 points

Everton: Points (46 - 48)

The finale season at Goodison Park finished with good feeling and momentum thanks to the return of David Moyes. He helped lead Everton clear of any relegation danger to finish 13^th. Now moving to a new stadium, Everton fans will hope for a new era as they seek to improve. Their forecast suggests that with the current squad they will likely be mid-table again.

Season History

• 24/25: 48 points
• 23/24: 48 points
• 22/23: 36 points

Fulham: Points (45.5 - 47.5)

Fulham are another side that will be satisfied to say they have established themselves back in the Premier League. Three successive seasons is an underrated achievement considering Fulham previously went through the issues of relegation-promotion-relegation-promotion. Their forecast suggests more mid-table safety is on the way.

Season History

• 24/25: 54 points
• 23/24: 47 points
• 22/23: 52 points

Leeds: Points (35.5 - 37.5)

Daniel Farke’s side secured promotion as Champions, Leeds fans can look forward to Premier League football again. The cub will expect to be busy in the transfer window. Their forecast suggests they have a chance of survival, but they will need to spend wisely.

Season History

• 24/25: 100 points (Competing in Championship)
• 23/24: 90 points (Competing in Championship)
• 22/23: 31 points

Liverpool: Points (77.5 - 79.5)

An incredible season for Arne Slot’s side. Most predictions saw a significant drop off following Jurgen Klopp’s departure, but Slot went about imposing evolution rather than revolution. With no significant signings last season, Liverpool are expected to be aggressive in the transfer window. Their forecast gives them a slight edge over their rivals, however they will face fierce competition.

Season History

• 24/25: 84 points
• 23/24: 82 points
• 22/23: 67 points

Manchester City: Points (77 - 79)

Pep Guardiola called last season the most challenging of his career. A season ending injury to Rodri + several players running out of legs led to City looking like a different team, City invested heavily in January and managed to secure 3^rd. Further additions have already been made including Rayan Cherki. City’s forecast suggests they should be back in the title race this season.

Season History

• 24/25: 71 points
• 23/24: 91 points
• 22/23: 89 points

Manchester United: Points (57 - 59)

A disaster is the only way to describe last season for United. Even the most pessimistic fan couldn’t have predicted Manchester United would finish with 42 points. Ruben Amorim’s three-at-the-back system didn’t seem to suit the squad he inherited. United have decided to back their manager, but they also need to clear out plenty of players including Rashford and Sancho. They surely can’t be worse this season and that’s reflected in their points forecast.

Season History

• 24/25: 42 points
• 23/24: 60 points
• 22/23: 75 points

Newcastle United: Points (65 - 67)

This Newcastle squad secured their place in the club’s history as they ended their 70-year trophy drought. Led by Eddie Howe the Magpies also managed to qualify for the Champions League for a second time in three seasons. Their points forecast for 2025/26 has them firmly in the mix for European football again. New signings are likely, but they also face challenges to keep hold of the likes of Isak and Gorson.

Season History

• 24/25: 66 points
• 23/24: 60 points
• 22/23: 71 points

Nottingham Forest: Points (47 - 49)

Last season was hugely impressive from Nuno and Nottingham Forest. Forest built a solid defense and with Chris Wood and Morgan Gibbs-White driving them forwards at one point they seemed likely to finish in the top four. A disappointing end to the season saw them fall into the Conference League. Fans will get to enjoy European football, but this may impact their league form as indicated by their points forecast.

Season History

• 24/25: 65 points
• 23/24: 36 points
• 22/23: 38 points

Sunderland: Points (24.5 - 26.5)

Sunderland can finally call themselves a Premier League club again for the first time since 2016-17. But after years of wilderness in the Championship and even League One they managed to clinch Play-Off victory. Investment in the squad will be needed, but even so the club will know they face a major challenge to finish outside the relegation zone. The team will be relying on their fans and home atmosphere. Their forecast suggest even that might not be enough.

Season History

• 24/25: 76 points (Competing in Championship)
• 23/24: 56 points (Competing in Championship)
• 22/23: 69 points (Competing in Championship)

Tottenham: Points (55 - 57)

One of the strangest seasons in recent history, Spurs were appalling in the league, even counting for injuries there’s no way they should have finished 17^th. Big Ange managed to win the Europa League, but not keep his job. Meaning new manager Frank inherits a side in the Champions League. Frank will need to focus on improving several of Spurs younger players. Their forecast shows a return to the mix for European football.

Season History

• 24/25: 38 points
• 23/24: 66 points
• 22/23: 60 points

West Ham: Points (45 - 47)

Last season must be considered a disappointment for the Hammers, with Lopetegui sacked half-way into his first season. Graham Potter came in and marginally improved things. However, a side with the quality of Kudus and Bowen should be aiming higher than 14^th. Several players have left including Ings, Coufal and Cresswell. New signings will be made but Hammers are likely to finish mid-table again as indicated by their forecast.

Season History

• 24/25: 43 points
• 23/24: 52 points
• 22/23: 40 points

Wolves: Points (40.5 - 42.5)

Wolves faced an incredibly difficult fixture list to start last season and Gary O’Neil was unable able to guide them through it. Vítor Pereira came in and improved things, and Wolves ended up avoiding relegation by 17 points. If Pereira can maintain the form they showed then the fans should be able to enjoy the new season. Their points forecast is in line with their last three Premier League seasons.

Season History

• 24/25: 42 points
• 23/24: 46 points
• 22/23: 41 points